STS-48 and "SDI": Oberg vs. Hoagland

 Newsgroups: sci.skeptic,sci.astro,sci.space,alt.alien.visitors

From: sheaffer@netcom.com (Robert Sheaffer)

Subject: STS-48 and "SDI": Oberg vs. Hoagland 

Message-ID: <1992Dec2.061212.8716@netcom.com>

Organization: Netcom - Online Communication Services (408 241-9760 guest)

Date: Wed, 2 Dec 1992 06:12:12 GMT

Lines: 271

I am posting the following file that I received from James Oberg, a

well-known writer on the space program. He is discussing the same

videotaped footage from NASA's STS-48 mission that has been endlessly

showen as a supposed "UFO." Richard Hoagland, a major promoter of the

"Face On Mars," claims that NASA cameras accidentally caught a secret 

"star wars test". Here is Oberg's rebuttal.

        James Oberg, Rt 2 Box 350, Dickinson, TX 77539

        Re: Did STS-48 view a "Star Wars" test?

        The  STS-48 mission was the 43rd shuttle launch, the 13th  flight

        of OV-103 Discovery, with the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite

        (UARS).  The crew was John Creighton, Ken Reightler, Jim  Buchli,

        Mark  Brown,  and Sam Gemar. It was launched from KSC  Pad  A  at

        2311GMT Sep 12, 1991 (twilight),landed at EAFB on Sep 18, 0738GMT

        (night), duration 5d08h27m. The orbit was inclined 57 degrees  to

        the  equator at an altitude of about 570 km, second only  to  the

        616  km altitude of the Hubble deploy mission a year and  a  half

        earlier.  Due  to  radar  experiments  with  the  deployed   UARS

        satellite,  I  was present in the control room for  two  planning

        shifts  (my  job  was as "Guidance and  Procedures  Officer"  for

        actions  related  to  orbital rendezvous,  such  as  the  planned

        checkout  of the radar which had shown performance  anomalies  on

        several earlier missions).

        I  have reviewed the videotape by Richard Hoagland alleging  that

        the  notorious STS-48 videotape shows a "Star Wars" weapons  test

        against  a  target  drone  with  astounding  propulsion.  In   my

        judgment,  the facts, analysis, and conclusions presented by  Mr.

        Hoagland are entirely wrong.

        Is  the object really very far away? Hoagland's argument  depends

        on proving that the object is at or beyond the physical  horizon,

        "1713  miles away". Proving this depends on optical  analysis  of

        the  image  and  of its motion. All  of  Hoagland's  analysis  is

        invalid.

        First,  Hoagland  alleges  that the videotape  shows  the  object

        suddenly appearing at the edge of the Earth, as if it had  popped

        up  from behind the horizon. But a more cautious viewing  of  the

        tape shows this is not accurate.

        The  object does NOT rise from "behind the horizon".  It  appears

        (arguably,  it  becomes  sunlit) at a point  below  the  physical

        horizon,  just slightly below, to be sure, but  measurably  below

        the edge of the Earth (the "limb").

        It  has  been  suggested  (Dipietro)  that  the  object's  sudden

        appearance  is  due to sunrise. This is plausible.  I  suggest  a

        variation  on this, that the object became visible when it  moved

        up  out  of the shuttle's shadow just after  sunrise.  Since  the

        video  was taken near sunrise, the shuttle's shadow was  pointing

        back nearly parallel to Earth's horizon, and the ground was still

        dark  (bright  ground reflection later lights up debris  even  if

        they are in the shuttle's sun shadow). This would require that it

        be close to the shuttle. The proximity to the horizon line  would

        be coincidental.

        Note  that the bright light in upper left is some sort of  camera

        anomaly  and  is not an electronic horizon marker as  alleged  by

        Hoagland. There is no such thing as an electronic horizon marker.

        Is  the  object  behind  the  atmosphere?  Hoagland  argues  that

        analysis of the imagery shows the object is physically behind the

        atmosphere.   But  I  disagree.  It  is  NOT  seen  through   the

        atmosphere:

        First,  consider  the brightening effect.  Computer  analysis  is

        shown  which  alleges that the brightening of  the  object  while

        below the airglow layer is analogous to the brightening of  stars

        setting behind the airglow layer. This allegedly implies that the

        object, like the stars, is behind the airglow layer.

        This argumentation is false because it posits the wrong causation

        mechanism   for  brightening  ("passage  of  the  light   through

        atmosphere").  This  should  be  obvious  since  at  the  airglow

        altitude  (40-60 miles) the atmosphere is already extremely  thin

        and the lapse rate (the drop in pressure per rise in altitude) is

        already much reduced over the value at lower altitudes (that  is,

        crossing the "airglow boundary" does NOT significantly change the

        atmospheric density the light ray is passing through). If density

        WERE  the  true cause of brightening, the effect  would  markedly

        peak  at a lower altitude (as soon as the beam rose  above  total

        obscuration),  then drop rapidly as atmospheric density  dropped,

        and  show NO NOTICEABLE CHANGE in dimunition rate as  it  crossed

        the  airglow layer because the density of traversed air  wouldn't

        change much either at that region.

        The  actual  connection  for  the  object's  brightening  is  the

        absolute  brightness of the airglow layer in the background.  The

        object  is brighter when it is against a bright background,  just

        as  stars  are  brighter. This is not an effect of  a  light  ray

        transiting  the  airglow region and somehow  being  strengthened.

        Instead,  I believe it is an effect on the camera optics  of  the

        summing,  pixel by pixel, of all brightness within the  field  of

        view.  A bright object with a dark background will not  throw  as

        many  photons on the individual pixels of the camera as  would  a

        bright object with a half-bright background. The camera's vidicon

        system will respond to light in the background by brightening the

        small point-source objects observed in that region, either  lying

        behind or crossing in front of that background. Repeat:  crossing

        in front of that airglow.

        This is confirmed by other checks. Observers can note that  other

        drifting  point-source objects, clearly starting well  below  the

        horizon line, also brighten as they traverse the airglow region.

        NOTE:  Hoagland's  argument that the dimming beyond  the  airglow

        disproves NASA's contention that the object is nearby and sunlit,

        since  as it gradually rose "higher into the sunlight" it  should

        brighten,  not dim, is false. Once in full sunlight,  no  further

        brightening  occurs. Sunrise only lasts as long as it  takes  for

        the  sun  (0.5 degrees wide) to rise above the  horizon,  at  the

        orbital  angular  rate  of 4 degrees per  minute  (that  is,  360

        degrees  in a 90-minute orbit), which comes to just 7-8  seconds,

        which anybody should have been able to figure out. Of course this

        is  different  from  ground rates, which depends  for  the  sun's

        angular motion on earth's rotation rate (4 minutes per degree, 16

        times slower than spaceship orbital rate). This argument  reveals

        Hoagland's unfamiliarity with basic orbital flight conditions and

        implications.

        Notice  that no mention is made by Hoagland of the clear  absence

        of expected refractive effects of being behind the atmosphere. As

        is  known  by  anybody who's watched  sunset/moonset  at  a  flat

        horizon,  the  atmosphere creates significant distortion  in  the

        bottom .2-.4 degrees of the image. The lowest layers  demonstrate

        a  vertical compression of 2:1 or greater. This is also shown  on

        pictures  of  "moonset"  from orbit. If the  STS-48  object  were

        really  travelling nearly parallel to the horizon  but  somewhere

        behind  the  atmosphere, this would be visible by  analyzing  its

        flight path. As it rose its line of travel would markedly  change

        as  atmospheric  refractive effects disappeared.  This  does  not

        happen, which strongly suggests that the object is NOT behind the

        atmosphere.

        Since  the arguments for great range to the object all fail,  the

        conclusions based on angular motion converted to physical  motion

        also fail.

        What  is  the "flare" in the camera that precedes the  change  in

        motion of all the objects? I believe the flare in the lower  left

        camera   FOV  is  an  RCS  jet  firing,  not  per   Hoagland   an

        electromagnetic pulse effect. There are several reasons: it  does

        not  look like any known electromagnetic video  interference;  it

        looks  just  like previously seen RCS flares;  and  the  Hoagland

        counterargument  about an alleged need for pointing  changing  is

        not valid.

        First, while it is true that EMI can affect electrical equipment,

        such pulses would not lie in any localized region of a television

        screen but would blitz the whole image. Anybody whose TV has ever

        been blitzed by lightning knows that the effect does not  confine

        itself  to  the  corner nearest the  lightning.  Also,  far  more

        sensitive  electronic  equipment aboard  the  shuttle,  including

        computers  which  were counting the pulses of  individual  cosmic

        rays  striking  their circuits, were not affected  by  the  event

        (otherwise,  the entire television transmission would  have  been

        knocked   out).   So  Hoagland's  explanation  is   magical   and

        unrealistic.

        Second,  the optical appearance of RCS jet firings is well  known

        and  familiar to experienced observers, and they look  just  like

        the flash in question. These have been observed and videotaped on

        every shuttle mission, from the crew cabin, from payload bay  and

        RMS  cameras, and from cameras on nearby free-flying  satellites,

        and from ground optical tracking cameras as well.

        Third, Hoagland's argument that the line of travel of stars  down

        to the horizon should have been kinked by the jet firing is plain

        ignorant.  During  attitude  hold  coast  periods,  the   shuttle

        autopilot  maintains  a  "deadband" of  several  degrees,  slowly

        drifting  back  and  forth and, when  the  attitude  exceeds  the

        deadband  limit,  a  jet is pulsed to  nudge  (NOT  "shove")  the

        spaceship  back  toward the center of the deadband.  The  angular

        rates induced by these 80-msec pulses are as follows:

             ROLL               .07 deg/sec

             PITCH              .10 deg/sec

             YAW                .05 deg/sec

        Note  that the star motion would have changed direction  ONLY  IF

        the orbiter's pointing attitude was shifted to the right or left.

        If  shifted up or down, only a slight change in star motion  rate

        would occur (this appears to be the way the jet plume is actually

        directed)  but  so  would horizon motion, so  it  would  have  to

        measured  as absolute screen position. If shifted in or  out,  no

        change  at  all would be observable. This is all  based  on  pure

        geometric considerations overlooked by Hoagland.

        After ten seconds, even in the worst case (pitch motion  inducing

        pure  crossways angular motion), the star track would  only  have

        diverged  a single degree from the former straight line. This  is

        visually undetectable on the images shown by Hoagland.

        So the fact that he sees no change in the star motion tracks does

        not disprove that the pulse was an RCS jet.

        Video  Encryption:  Hoagland  alleges  that  since  STS-48,   all

        external  STS  video has been encrypted and will be  viewed  only

        after NASA review and approval. I have checked with a NASA Public

        Affairs  official, and have personally verified, that things  (as

        usual)  are not quite what Richard Hoagland alleges.  On  STS-42,

        the  second  flight  after STS-48 (the STS-44  DoD  mission  went

        between   them),   the  International   Microgravity   Laboratory

        (Spacelab)  science  group requested that medical  video  imagery

        from  the cardiological studies (sonogram images) be  treated  as

        privileged   medical   information,   as   all   previous   audio

        conversations with doctors had been. NASA discovered that  having

        to  continuously reconfigure the White Sands TDRSS site  and  the

        TDRSS satellites back and forth for encrypted video  transmission

        was  a laborous process. Rather than spend all that time, it  was

        decided  to go into encrypted mode continuously and  decrypt  the

        raw  video at NASA Goddard for immediate release over  the  "NASA

        Select"  circuit.  Normally, when there was  shuttle  video,  the

        White  Sands to Goddard raw video link had been unencrypted,  and

        the   Goddard  relay  to  "NASA  Select"  required   no   further

        processing;  but  when  medically-privileged  video  was  to   be

        transmitted  (a  new innovation on STS-42,  planned  for  years),

        complex encryption processes had to be initiated on the  shuttle,

        on  the  TDRS  satellites, at White Sands, and  at  Goddard.  The

        procedure  for constant encryption was implemented to  avoid  the

        cost of many switchovers between modes. But the NASA Select video

        from  Goddard  was  to continue to be decrypted  except  for  the

        medical  transmissions, which were to be openly announced on  the

        audio  feed,  just  not piped into a million  homes  and  schools

        nationwide.  Since  then, the NASA Select video  (originating  at

        NASA  Goddard,  and containing other sources of video,  too)  has

        continued to be transmitted as before, with the only change  that

        the  White Sands to Goddard link (which viewers could  previously

        observe  when it was active) is now encrypted. There is  no  hint

        from air-to-ground conversations that anything other than the new

        (and long scheduled) medical video imagery is being  interrupted.

        And  although  it is encrypted, the White Sands raw feed  can  be

        observed  to tell if there is a video signal or not on the  feed,

        so I am told.

        Conclusion:  The standing explanation, that the objects are  near

        the  shuttle, are sunlit, and are affected by the plume field  of

        an RCS jet firing, remains valid.

        P.S. Hoagland made a number of other factually erroneous comments

        about  live  planetary  image transmissions.  He  says  that  all

        previously  NASA  planetary  probes  transmitted  live   imagery.

        Actually,  only fly-by probes did that, particularly  the  fly-by

        probes which had slow transmission rates which took many  minutes

        to build up each image. Probes orbiting other planets (Venus  and

        Mars,   for  example),  do  not  (and  I  believe,  never   HAVE)

        transmitted  live imagery, since they are frequently occulted  by

        the planet's mass. Each orbit's imagery is stored and dumped over

        a short portion of each orbit, and the imagery data is  initially

        decoded over the next hours and days. Live coverage of the actual

        image transmission would usually be blank, but for a few  minutes

        every few hours would show images flipping across the screen at a

        very fast rate, if there was enough computer power to decode them

        in  this  "real  time" speed. There is no  practical  reason  why

        computers have to be built so powerful to keep up with the  high-

        speed  dump rate for a few minutes, then rest idle for  the  next

        several  hours.  Outside  of avoiding  whines  about  censorship,

        there's no reason to do so.

-- 

  

        Robert Sheaffer - Scepticus Maximus - sheaffer@netcom.com

  

 Past Chairman, The Bay Area Skeptics - for whom I speak only when authorized!

     "Mystical explanations are considered deep. The truth is that

      they are not even superficial."

                   - Friedrich Nietzsche    (The Gay Science: 126)