A Revival of the 61-Month Wave Theory

 
                     A Revival of the 61-Month Wave Theory
     
                           by Donald A. Johnson, Ph.D.
                                 P.O. Box 161
                           Kirkland, Washington 98033

           The Knowles family CE-II encounter with an ovoid-shaped UFO
      on the Nullarbor Plateau in Western Australia January 20th was
      right on target in terms of time and place, according to the
      61-month wave cycle first proposed by Dr. David Saunders back in
      1971.  At least two other UFO encounters of major importance
      occurred that same night in Australia and Tasmania.  If the
      indications are correct and this is not an isolated incident but
      the beginnings of a major UFO wave, we will have to reconsider
      the significance of this long-term prediction in terms of our
      ability to predict and act upon the occurrence of this and
      future UFO waves.
     
           Dr. David Saunders first noticed the regularity in major
      American UFO waves (1947, 1952, 1957 and 1967) in the early
      months of 1971 while working with the UFOCAT computer catalog at
      the University of Colorado.  He determined that what
      distinguished these UFO waves from other, possibly
      publicity-generated UFO waves, was the shape of their
      distributions.  These were waves of UFO reports in which the
      frequency of daily reports began building slowly, built to a
      crescendo, and then diminished rapidly.    These
      negatively-skewed UFO waves occurred with a periodicity of five
      years, or more accurately 61-months, with an accuracy in peak
      prediction to within a day or so (1).
     
           Furthermore, another characteristic of these five-year
      waves was the progressively eastward movement of their loci of
      activity.  The first wave crested in July 1947 and occurred
      predominantly in the Pacific and Mountain States.  The 1952 wave
      reached its peak in late August 1952 with the majority of
      reports coming from Midwestern States.  Each successive wave
      appeared to move approximately 30 degrees east in longitude. 
      The absence of a 1962 wave was accounted for by a search of
      South American references which revealed a Brazilian and
      Argentinian UFO wave in September, and the 1967 wave--which
      began on the Eastern seaboard of the United States--actually
      crested in November of that year in England.
     
           Saunders was able to make his first prediction that a major
      UFO wave would occur in the vicinity of 30 degrees East
      longitude and peak in December 1972 over a year prior to its
      occurrence.  This prediction was borne out by the occurrence of
      a UFO wave in South Africa in late November.  However, most
      ufologists lost interest in the theory when the predicted waves
      for 1977-78 and 1983 failed to materialize (so far as we can
      tell).  Both of these waves should have occurred in countries
      controlled predominantly by governments unfriendly to the West. 
      Saunders continues to have faith in the theory and has offered a
      consistent, convincing response to critics:  that it is unfair
      to judge the merits of the theory on what we may or may not hear
      about from the Soviet Union.
     
           According to calculations (see table below), the next great
      UFO wave should occur between now and the beginning of March,
      centered at 120 degrees East longitude.  The Nullarbor Plain is
      at approximately 127 degrees East longitude.  The wave should
      also unfold in the same characteristic manner as the earlier
      waves, building slowly in intensity in the number of daily
      reports and diminishing rapidly after reaching a peak.
     
                                    Table 1
     
               The 61-Month Wave Cycle and Corresponding UFO Waves
     
      Predicted     Actual Peak      Predicted     Actual
       Date           Date           Longitude     Location
     
      July 1947     July 8, 1947       120o W     Northwestern U.S.
      Aug. 1952     Aug. 3, 1952        90o W     Central and Eastern U.S.
      Sep. 1957     Aug. 21, 1957       60o W     Central and Eastern U.S.
      Oct. 1962     Sep. 1962           30o W     Brazil
      Nov. 1967     Oct. 24, 1967        0o W     Atlantic, England
      Dec. 1972     Nov. 1972           30o E     South Africa
      Jan. 1978     ?                   60o E     ?
      Feb. 1983     ?                   90o E     ?
      Mar. 1988     Feb. 1988(?)       120o E     Australia(?)
     

           A corrollary to the Saunders' spatio-temporal wave theory
      is that physical evidence cases should occur at approximately
      the same time world-wide; thus, if the Australian close
      encounters continue to occur during the pre-dawn hours, we
      should expect U.S. CE-II cases to occur in the evening hours
      between 4 and 10 p.m., since the United States and Australia
      have a time difference of some 8 to 11 hours.
     
           We shall soon see if new evidence merits the revival of
      an old theory.
     
     
           (1) Saunders, D.R. (1976).  A spatio-temporal invariant for
      major UFO waves.  In N. Dornbos (ed.), Proceedings of the 1976
      CUFOS Conference.  Evanston, IL:  Center for UFO Studies.