A Revival of the 61-Month Wave Theory

   

                     A Revival of the 61-Month Wave Theory

      

                           by Donald A. Johnson, Ph.D.

                                 P.O. Box 161

                           Kirkland, Washington 98033

           The Knowles family CE-II encounter with an ovoid-shaped UFO 

      on the Nullarbor Plateau in Western Australia January 20th was 

      right on target in terms of time and place, according to the 

      61-month wave cycle first proposed by Dr. David Saunders back in 

      1971.  At least two other UFO encounters of major importance 

      occurred that same night in Australia and Tasmania.  If the 

      indications are correct and this is not an isolated incident but 

      the beginnings of a major UFO wave, we will have to reconsider 

      the significance of this long-term prediction in terms of our 

      ability to predict and act upon the occurrence of this and 

      future UFO waves.

      

           Dr. David Saunders first noticed the regularity in major 

      American UFO waves (1947, 1952, 1957 and 1967) in the early 

      months of 1971 while working with the UFOCAT computer catalog at 

      the University of Colorado.  He determined that what 

      distinguished these UFO waves from other, possibly 

      publicity-generated UFO waves, was the shape of their 

      distributions.  These were waves of UFO reports in which the 

      frequency of daily reports began building slowly, built to a 

      crescendo, and then diminished rapidly.    These 

      negatively-skewed UFO waves occurred with a periodicity of five 

      years, or more accurately 61-months, with an accuracy in peak 

      prediction to within a day or so (1).

      

           Furthermore, another characteristic of these five-year 

      waves was the progressively eastward movement of their loci of 

      activity.  The first wave crested in July 1947 and occurred 

      predominantly in the Pacific and Mountain States.  The 1952 wave 

      reached its peak in late August 1952 with the majority of 

      reports coming from Midwestern States.  Each successive wave 

      appeared to move approximately 30 degrees east in longitude.  

      The absence of a 1962 wave was accounted for by a search of 

      South American references which revealed a Brazilian and 

      Argentinian UFO wave in September, and the 1967 wave--which 

      began on the Eastern seaboard of the United States--actually 

      crested in November of that year in England.

      

           Saunders was able to make his first prediction that a major 

      UFO wave would occur in the vicinity of 30 degrees East 

      longitude and peak in December 1972 over a year prior to its 

      occurrence.  This prediction was borne out by the occurrence of 

      a UFO wave in South Africa in late November.  However, most 

      ufologists lost interest in the theory when the predicted waves 

      for 1977-78 and 1983 failed to materialize (so far as we can 

      tell).  Both of these waves should have occurred in countries 

      controlled predominantly by governments unfriendly to the West.  

      Saunders continues to have faith in the theory and has offered a 

      consistent, convincing response to critics:  that it is unfair 

      to judge the merits of the theory on what we may or may not hear 

      about from the Soviet Union.

      

           According to calculations (see table below), the next great 

      UFO wave should occur between now and the beginning of March, 

      centered at 120 degrees East longitude.  The Nullarbor Plain is 

      at approximately 127 degrees East longitude.  The wave should 

      also unfold in the same characteristic manner as the earlier 

      waves, building slowly in intensity in the number of daily 

      reports and diminishing rapidly after reaching a peak.

      

                                    Table 1

      

               The 61-Month Wave Cycle and Corresponding UFO Waves

      

      Predicted     Actual Peak      Predicted     Actual

       Date           Date           Longitude     Location

      

      July 1947     July 8, 1947       120o W     Northwestern U.S.

      Aug. 1952     Aug. 3, 1952        90o W     Central and Eastern U.S.

      Sep. 1957     Aug. 21, 1957       60o W     Central and Eastern U.S.

      Oct. 1962     Sep. 1962           30o W     Brazil

      Nov. 1967     Oct. 24, 1967        0o W     Atlantic, England

      Dec. 1972     Nov. 1972           30o E     South Africa

      Jan. 1978     ?                   60o E     ?

      Feb. 1983     ?                   90o E     ?

      Mar. 1988     Feb. 1988(?)       120o E     Australia(?)

      

           A corrollary to the Saunders' spatio-temporal wave theory 

      is that physical evidence cases should occur at approximately 

      the same time world-wide; thus, if the Australian close 

      encounters continue to occur during the pre-dawn hours, we 

      should expect U.S. CE-II cases to occur in the evening hours 

      between 4 and 10 p.m., since the United States and Australia 

      have a time difference of some 8 to 11 hours.

      

           We shall soon see if new evidence merits the revival of 

      an old theory.

      

      

           (1) Saunders, D.R. (1976).  A spatio-temporal invariant for 

      major UFO waves.  In N. Dornbos (ed.), Proceedings of the 1976 

      CUFOS Conference.  Evanston, IL:  Center for UFO Studies.