THE MID-EAST CONFRONTATION circa 1992

                 THE MID-EAST CONFRONTATION

Note: the following analysis and commentary is from a native
      Texan-American, who has no connection whatsoever with any foreign
      entities or American agencies. He does have personal knowledge,
      however, of life and people in the Arabic region. If anyone of
      Jewish origin questions his attitude toward Israel, let it be
      known up front that he absolutely supports the integrity of
      Israel's state, and the safety and well-being of its citizens,
      in Israel and wherever they may be in the world.

      In certain places, x's replace strong language or names we choose
      not to make public.
*****************************************************************************


Lately TV time has been given to anti-US involvement folks so that they
can enlightnen us on why we should not be in the Persian Gulf.
They say:
   1) it's not our problem, we were not attacked.
   2) it's just about oil (money), and oil's not worth dying for.
   3) all those countries are dictatorships anyway, so one is no worse
than another.
Perhaps there are other points, but these were the ones I heard over and
over. That we want to stick our nose in where we have no business.

They say we should use "alternative" forms of energy.

All of this is so much crap, unless we want to settle for becoming a 3rd
rate country, no longer the symbol of democracy that the rest of the
world aspires to become. Alternative energy? WHAT alternative? 10 or 20
years down the road, but America as we know it would be buried and gone.
Our children's children would study of some "Hero Dictator" who
"liberated" the USA. Saddam Hussein in control of 55% of the world's
oil? With Biological and Nuclear weapons as well as chemical?

GET REAL, PEOPLE! If he broke solemn pledges and non-aggression pacts
with his own kind, can we believe anything he says? He is a cold, brutal
mad-dog who gasses his own minorities, and shoots in the head any
official who questions his judgement.

(One of my boyhood heroes said you can deal with an ignorant person, but
have no chance against a stupid one.)

Hey - we're not Bushie fanatics. We're not particularly fond of having
our ground troops in Saudi Arabia, and darn sure hope we don't start an
offensive action using them (no need to). And, we darn sure don't want
them kept there indefinitely. If there is war, we need to use the force
necessary to end it quick, like several days max., turn mop-up or final
disposition over to the UN or Arab forces, and come the hell home!

History clearly shows that Hitler could have been stopped at an early
stage of German expansionism, and WWII would have been avoided, and the
hundreds of thousands of eventual American casualities. And one of my
uncles would not have had to leave most of his buddies laying on the side
of a hill on a worthless island called Iwo Jima. His Purple Hearts,
Silver Star, and permanent disability are grim reminders.
<<<>>>
Good chance that diplomatic ties (USA-IRAN) will be re-established soon.
It seems we are quietly repaying them for weapons paid for by the
late Shah but never delivered following the revolution. This was one of
Iran's preconditions for renewed ties.
This is in our interest, to discourage closer Iranian relations with
Saddam, and to put a lid on public demonstrations in Iran against our
presence in the Gulf region.
Strange bed-fellows emerging from this mess, eh?
<<<>>>
Let's go WAY OUT on a prediction limb - Saddam may be trying to set up a
"pact", a "coalition", with Jordan in essence agreeing to accept the
"protection" of Iraq. Now, verbally doing that would provoke Israel to
make some moves, verbally or whatever, in response. Saddam wants Israel
more involved to change Arab and Moslem opinion into support for him.
Why would Jordan do it? King Hussein was part of the invasion conspiracy
against Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and has little choice now but to obey
Saddam's orders (according to rumors).
Bushie better quit pussyfooting around and get on with business!
<<<>>>
Let's stop a minute and reflect on the overall situation as it exists at
this point in time.
First, what gives us an international legal right or excuse to take
unilateral military action against Iraq (a first strike)? That answer is
simple - Iraq is holding our citizens hostage without provocation from
us.
Next, why not try to get the United Nations to vote a UN military force
to oust Saddam from Kuwait? Seemingly simple - but there is no existing
military mechanism in the UN, the UN would move so slowly as to doom
Kuwaiti citizens, the UN has no funds - but the biggest objection of all
is that even a successful UN action probably would leave Saddam in
power, where he could await another day, and have nuclear capability in
the meantime.
Possibilities: Saddam could release all hostages, doing so might cause
some countries to back off. Of course he would release them so very
slowly as to drag it out a month or more, possibly freezing military
action (on our part) in the meantime. Then our "international legal"
position for invasion would be weakened, as would our UN support.
What about our troops in Saudi Arabia? Most informed observers see a
real problem here if our presence drags on over time. The problem is
culture clash - and the Saudi government would face mounting resentment
from the Kingdom's many religious leaders, who control daily life.
Friends and Foes: Jordan's King has turned out to be the 20th century
Judas. Intelligence sources say he was a willing participant in Iraq's
invasion, advising Saddam that the US would not respond militarily to a
takeover of Kuwait, etc. The little short weasel is thrashing about
wildly now in every direction in an attempt to save himself. Seems he got
tired of going hat-in-hand to beg alms yearly from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia,
and got totally pissed when the US refused to give him more arms.

Iran wavers, they hate Iraq and the USA both, and want high oil prices to
last as long as possible.
Wild cards: Israel! If Israel decides to make some sort of pre-emptive
military attack (and well they might) it will aggravate the USA position
greatly. Arab forces and leaders who are now against Saddam would balk
at getting involved on Israel's side. But, if Saddam then launched
missiles against Saudi targets, we would respond. Then what?? Only God
knows!!! Saddam would LOVE to involve Israel, but fears their power.
Strangely enough (from an American viewpoint), Israel may secretly want
to aggravate or complicate the US position in order to make a lasting
solution impossible.
Mark this carefully: Israeli leaders don't want an end to the
Middle-East conflict because they fear they can't survive economically
without American aid money. Yes, they DON'T WANT peace - they just want
military superiority! This is the Achilles heel of the United States
Middle East policies as long as we permit Israel a free hand.
Apparent losers: King Hussein (unless he has 9 lives), The PLO and the
poor Palestinian people, radical moslem fundamentalists (hopefully).
Apparent winners: Israel, Syria, Egypt, Iran.
Unless and until we take decisive action, many turns can still unfold,
with possible tragic consequences.
<<<>>>
The Israelis couldn't stand it! Here they come with their palms
outstretched when they heard about forgiving debts and military weapon
sales to Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Makes you wish the American people and
not the Jewish lobby controlled so many US Congressmen. Makes you wish
there was some sort of law preventing our own aid money from being
turned around and given as campaign "contributions" to our own
politicians! Makes you sick to realize that our policies resulting
from this are  the root cause of hatred of America from so many of
the common people of the Middle-Eastern countries.

I hope that our American leaders of tomorrow (are any of you here?) will
take heed and cause an impartial policy to be reinstated in that
region. I don't think our present leaders have the guts or the
necessary prodding from us homefolks to do the right thing. It is so
xxxxxxx funny to see former Presidents Carter and What's His Name Ford
speaking out on this once they left office! While they were in office
the lilly-livered xxxxxxxx didn't have the guts to say it!

It is totally a fact that Palestinians are being denied basic rights and
freedoms of choice and of due process on the West Bank under Israeli
occupation! But again a fact that that gives no right or legitimacy to
Saddam for the invasion of Kuwait!

Urge the President to take forceful action NOW to push Saddam out of
Kuwait, REMOVE him from power and neutralize the chemical factories and
stocks in Iraq, turn Kuwait over to the UN for appropriate disposition,
and bring our troops HOME, xxxxxx. NOW, not when or if, but NOW!!!
<<<>>>
Let's analyze old Saddam. We asked the xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx - his comments
follow:
   The pressure on Saddam is not only the visible part, such as the
blockade, the UN sanctions, the public condemnations, but even worse the
possibility of losing any hope of becoming THE SAVIOUR, THE POWER and
THE GLORY of the Arab and Muslim masses of the world. In fact, he faces
increasing danger of losing his head, literally. Saddam Hussein's
boyhood hero was Nasser of Egypt, the charismatic would-be saviour and
unifier of all Arabic masses. Saddam's vision is to succeed where his
hero failed, and he is driven totally by this obsession -all else is
secondary.
   Saddam's recent moves: he seems to be trying to determine what
outside forces think his next move will be (logically), then actually
taking other actions (against logic). There is a name for this type of
strategy - "The Logic of Illogic", which has been used in brain-washing
prisioners.
   Predicting Saddam's course: He would give anything to involve the
Israelis, but at the same time knows an overt act on his part would draw
a possibly-crushing response. He will look for a way to involve them,
even verbally, without causing a massive military response (If he could
somehow get King Hussein to "invite" him to "protect Jordan", that would
be one way...). He will continue to jack the hostages around and to loot
Kuwait. He may organize world-wide terrorist attacks. He may fire a few
missiles at Saudi targets to test the response. He may let some hostages
die (probably 3rd world citizens) publicly of starvation in an attempt
to gain support. He may even withdraw from Kuwait, except take the 2
islands which have been in some dispute previously and perhaps certain
land areas as well.
   The xxxxxx says Saddam will also do some other things unexpectedly,
as part of his "logic of illogic" strategy.

What can Bushie do now? He's already talking to Syria, a good move. He
should get King Fahd to invite the main PLO leaders, including Arafat,
to secret talks. The King should review the status of the PLO in the
region, reminding them of the millions Saudi Arabia and Kuwait has given
them in aid in recent years. Then make it clear that such aid is now
dead as a result of the invasion and the PLO's backing of Saddam, and
that the PLO is now furthur from a homeland than ever, because of
SADDAM! Then the King should simply say words to the effect that were
the PLO to publicly, in statements and actions, reverse its position and
declare itself opposed to Saddam's deeds, that he would use his
influence with the USA to get US/PLO talks reopened, and see that future
aid from the Gulf States is resumed.
<<<>>>
We can put Saddam out of Kuwait, but the region will only have a chance
of stability when Saddam is "gone" personally.
According to international law, we have a right to be where we are.
If you appease a power-mad dictator with one country, history tells us
that soon he will take another. Saddam in control of over half the
world's oil? On the verge of nuclear capability? Is that just an ARAB
problem?
And why can we not stand up in the world for what is right? We are a
symbol of freedom to all oppressed and poor people of the world, and you
and I have our roots in that ideal and that reality, unless you are of
native Indian ancestry. I have been in many Asian countries where people
will wait for years, and be willing to SELL THEIR SOUL, for an immigrant
visa to the USA.
Our main problem in the Middle East, and with many Arabs, is that we
have tilted in recent years far too much in favor of Israel, even when
Israel has committed clear acts of aggression and suppression. At this
point in time, it's difficult to predict an easy way to make this right.

A happy ending...(Hollywood style):
   Saddam is overthrown from within, and a more democratic society is
established.
   Iraq pulls out of Kuwait.
   The Jordanian monarch is overthrown, and the Palestinian majority
create a constitutional government and rename the country Palestine.
   Israel, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the gulf states, Egypt, and
the new country Palestine sign a non-aggression and mutual defense
treaty and Israel returns the West Bank area.
   (This leaves Syria and Iran, who probably would pose no problems. As for
Libya, just make certain the fool doesn't obtain one or more Nuclear
devices...)
   So much for Hollywood...   Hey, it wouldn't be that difficult if a few
members of our congress, a few old men in Israel, Arafat and a coupla
extremists Palestinians shutup or disappeared.
<<<>>>
The Jordanian King may well be on his last leg. Imagine Iraq in
desperation taking some action into Jordan, or Israeli planes provoking
some Iraqi planes into firing their missiles: Israel responds instantly
and massively, and occupies all of Jordan within hours. Eventually
Israel turns Jordan into "Palestine", a home for the Palestinians with
self-rule, but as a "protectorate" of Israel!
<<<>>>
We (and our friends in xxxxx) STILL THINK Saddam will try something
militarily, probably with ground or air missiles against SAUDI oil or
Industrial installations, of a limited nature, just to test the Allied
response. He is ITCHING at the trigger, and some of his advisors are
assuring him we will do nothing except try to shoot down the
missiles.???      ....and we may or may not, perhaps, depending on the
timing...???
<<<>>>
American forces will be at a sufficient strength by xxxxxxxx to
offensively push Iraq out of Kuwait. Scenario: We launch a surprise
co-ordinated attack 2 hours before dawn on a Saturday. Phase 1 - air
attacks against Iraqi missile sites, air fields, and military command
posts in Kuwait and Iraq. Paratroopers land and organize helicopter
evacuation of hostages. Leaflets are dropped offering amnesty to Iraqi
soldiers who defect and surrender. Phase 2 - ground forces led by
attack helicopters and planes enter Kuwait. Fighter-bombers bomb Iraqi
munitions and chemical facilities. Marines come ashore and secure
Kuwait city. Phase 3 - secure Kuwaiti borders and mop-up interior.
Iraqi losses: 100,000 + and most of their military muscle. Our losses:
3,000 troops max. and several dozen civilians. After the initial
resistance, most of their troops will surrender. Kuwait will be taken
within 6 hours. Will we stop at the Iraqi border? No idea...We may stop,
and let Arabic troops go ahead into Iraq. This would be wise...
<<<>>>